Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 23.839913 25.956379 28.243049 30.908893 33.946245 37.316733 41.364345
2025-12-28 20.464591 23.341364 26.666716 30.840490 36.005217 42.276996 50.613589
2026-01-04 18.155935 21.465150 25.499324 30.878104 38.020064 47.421878 61.180664
2026-01-11 16.602281 20.216907 24.823725 31.294853 40.447033 53.439021 74.343062
2026-01-18 15.195928 18.941978 23.889491 31.144122 41.969799 58.396065 87.260601
2026-01-25 14.029605 17.830657 23.003151 30.872309 43.183609 63.034661 100.985138
2026-02-01 13.127925 16.973404 22.347926 30.803423 44.628904 68.265956 117.466103
2026-02-08 12.317332 16.159665 21.654278 30.555841 45.695925 73.014126 134.730594
2026-02-15 11.600190 15.413754 20.978058 30.231192 46.543788 77.499241 153.258761
2026-02-22 10.979496 14.756907 20.369737 29.930095 47.358734 82.070694 174.112876
2026-03-01 10.455398 14.203057 19.867508 29.737921 48.323817 87.157275 199.034255
2026-03-08 9.966046 13.666745 19.345912 29.447187 49.040660 91.863828 225.701162
2026-03-15 9.795639 13.614623 19.604227 30.579709 52.824243 104.893224 290.468691
2026-03-22 9.379370 13.151196 19.152294 30.369857 53.795255 111.335215 337.547908
2026-03-29 9.031482 12.774735 18.816453 30.339577 55.154258 119.284811 400.542523
2026-04-05 8.781350 12.539230 18.700067 30.713811 57.491618 130.872407 499.038899
2026-04-12 8.463520 12.174357 18.332438 30.551935 58.548278 139.052718 593.638445
2026-04-19 8.153173 11.804882 17.931126 30.280372 59.296265 146.589886 701.312577
2026-04-26 7.895783 11.509982 17.642349 30.210038 60.542327 156.409390 855.692861
2026-05-03 7.631690 11.190424 17.288336 29.967635 61.306588 164.897930 1029.513909
2026-05-10 7.375083 10.871440 16.915959 29.651075 61.826507 172.777513 1234.220484
2026-05-17 7.138154 10.575459 16.568757 29.357788 62.369621 181.115280 1496.681856
2026-05-24 6.929725 10.319450 16.281337 29.170642 63.189779 191.169887 1870.309810